Mnangagwa heading for landslide victory in 2018 watershed elections: Here's why

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Today I read an article "Zimbabwe six months on: Life in the fast lane" by Eddie Cross. I just had to respond to him and many other opposition hopefuls. In his article Eddie, whom I respect for calling it as he sees it, regardless of his personal stake on the issue, describes the scintillating and "seamless" pace at which ED Mnangagwa carried out two important events in our country within the last five years.

First it was the 2013 elections which ED won for ZANU-PF with a landslide.

Second was the 2017 calamitous and epochal removal of Robert Mugabe from office. These two events are important because:

– They show ED operating unfettered for the first time as he was given carte blanche by Mugabe to run the 2013 elections.

– They also show how effectively and dramatically ED can pull a situation "out of the fire"

Eddie Cross suggests that Mugabe triggered his own demise by firing Mnangagwa and while I concur with this, it is by far not the full story! The reality is that ED and his team anticipated, expected and indeed manoeuvred Mugabe to fire him.

Having a comprehensive psychological profile of both Grace and Bob, they goaded the woman into overdrive through innocuous yet irritating little rumours attributed to ED—the type of rumours that drove Grace over the edge—to self-destruct! Before ED and his team could take the quantum leap of moving the whole army against Bob, they needed Bob to cross a certain line—firing a long-time confidante and the highest ranking deputy in the party was that line.

ED had done his homework and if this transition was going to be acceptable to the SADC and AU he needed to have been seriously provoked to act as he did—-to understand this better, one can refer to Baleka Mbete Speaker of SA Parliament when she was asked to comment about the events in Zimbabwe—Mbete said it was wrong for Robert Mugabe to have fired a "whole Vice President"—most African leaders would have felt the exact same thing.

My point is that the firing of ED Mnangagwa was not a fluke or mistake, but rather a carefully planned option and eventuality by ED and his team—the only oblivious players caught at their sixes and sevens were Bob, Grace and Jonathan. And the masses, of course!

Eddie Cross intimates further that the involvement of the millions of people in the protest against Mugabe "came from an unexpected source"—-here Eddie Cross refers to the war veterans—-yes the call for people to march came from the war-veterans but it was also a carefully planned and orchestrated ruse—the war veterans had been spear-heading military interests for months against Mugabe and at the time things were happening the Chairman of the war veterans was in SA in full contact with ED and the military.

My whole argument is that Robert Mugabe and his wife were driven to go exactly where ED and his team wanted them; the masses also went where they were bid and they did so happily. ED's modus operandi is quite simple—he goes with the flow—he follows the path of least resistance but at the end of it all, he knows how to manipulate events and personalities to his full advantage—always ending up on top of the situation.

It is a rare talent and it is this very talent that saw Mzee Simon Muzenda recommending ED as presidential assistant to Mugabe—all the divide and rule antics attributed to Mugabe were the brains of ED in action—it is now quite clear that he was the cornerstone of Bob's long stay in power.

Eddie Cross, who, though in the opposition, quite admires ED's political prowess and with good reason, also gives the analogy of how a goat was devoured by a crocodile. He says the goat had drunk his fill and had just turned his back on the river, quite confident that he was walking away from danger—at that complacent moment the crocodile struck its fatal blow. On that Super Sunday, Grace Mugabe was also super confident that she had got rid of ED and yet that was her last moment in power!

All the foregoing argument is meant to demonstrate the following qualities of one political extrovert called Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa:
– Nothing around this guy happens by mistake or luck—he is a meticulous planner who keeps all his cards close to his chest

– If you are his adversary and you feel happy, excited or confident that you have won, that is likely the moment that you have lost the game—Chamisa is exactly where ED wants him!

– He is not a man who goes into a fight that he cannot win and yet often feigns weakness when he is strongest!

– His logic is simple but he almost always thinks outside the box

– He acts better than he talks and he has an excellent unflinching team!

Juxtapose these facts to the on-going electoral tussle and I am compelled to make the following conclusions:

1) ED is quite sure that he will win the elections and all his play at the moment is to pacify the international community and undercut any post-electoral protestations by the opposition—in this regard he is playing a game of CHESS while Chamisa is playing a game of DRAFT(or is that DAFT?)—not the same game!

2) ED knows that he is not a great orator and his strength is tangible deliverables of which his trump card would be the economy—-and he has been obsessing with that to the extent that the opposition do not see his footprints in campaigns—in view of this I predict that the economy will make a sudden and momentous recovery wiping out especially the shortage of currency almost overnight—ALL THIS WILL HAPPEN BEFORE ELECTIONS. We might even have the Zimdollar in circulation by election time!

3) Chamisa is busy playing the game of crowds—this game was "invented" by ED in the 2013 elections which beggars the question why ED is apparently not playing it now—there are several important reasons why he is deliberately delaying showing his cards namely:

– Letting Chamisa lead gives ED and his team time to copy and improve his act—-we will see bigger crowds by ED than by Chamisa before this election is over

– The psychology of elections is that the last word or message is the most influential—hence ED wants the masses to have his words ringing in their ears just before they put pen to ballot paper

– Competitive electioneering toe-toe in the streets will result in confrontations with the opposition who have demonstrated a bloodthirsty propensity for violence and the knack to blame the ruling party for it—hence they are pre-empted by his apparent lack of fervor on the streets—- in this regard, I see once again, that ED is playing POKER, while Chamisa is playing CHEKKERS!

Compiling and collating all the factors above without emotional inflection, it's quite clear that ED and team will not only win this election with a landslide but the opposition won't have a leg to stand on by way of protesting the results. If you thought that the removal of Robert Mugabe from power was dramatic, wait till you see these election results! Also, Mugabe will definitely vote for ED – kkkkkkk!!

– Noble Tawanda Ngara


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