The Economist Intelligence Union, a member of The Economist Group has released a 2023 election forecast predicting a comfortable win for Mnangagwa’s ruling party Zanu PF.
The EUI which has over 60 years in intelligence gathering and reporting on countries also projected that the Zimbabwean dollar rate will be ZW$7.1:USD$1 in 2024. The report was released on 9 October 2019.
Read an extract of the projection below:
In the most recent presidential election, in July 2018, Mr Mnangagwa won 50.8% of the votes just enough to avoid a run-off against his nearest rival, Nelson Chamisa of the MDC. Mr Chamisa secured 44.3% of the vote, with the remainder spread across the other 21 candidates.
In the legislative election, which was held at the same time, Zanu-PF secured a two-thirds parliamentary majority, with 179 out of 270 seats. Zanu-PF remains in a dominant position because any group splitting from the ruling party would lose access to the benefits of incumbency.
Nevertheless, the emergence of divisions within Zanu-PF cannot be ruled out as the economic situation remains perilous. The opposition has little political authority or ability to hold the government to account.
The next presidential and legislative elections are due to be held in 2023. We expect Zanu-PF to win comfortably given its stranglehold on the political scene (although the elections are unlikely to be free or fair). Because of the ruling party’s dominance, we deem early elections to be unlikely, despite significant political and economic tensions.