As the race to succeed President Emmerson Mnangagwa heats up, the battle lines within Zanu PF are being drawn not just at home, but on the international stage, with China and India seemingly pulled into Zimbabwe’s complex 2028 succession race.
While Zanu PF will not formally choose its 2028 presidential candidate until its elective congress in 2027, the two leading contenders, President Emmerson Mnangagwa and his deputy, Constantino Chiwenga, are already engaged in parallel diplomatic and economic manoeuvres, each seeking to bolster their power at home and credibility abroad.
The contrasting approaches of Mnangagwa and Chiwenga were starkly evident in early September. Mnangagwa was in Beijing, meeting with President Xi Jinping and signing cooperation agreements, while Chiwenga was simultaneously in New Delhi, securing commitments on vehicle assembly, energy generation, and sugar production.
Analysts suggest Mnangagwa’s symbolic diplomacy in China, versus Chiwenga’s more transactional wins in India, highlights the succession struggle now shaping Zimbabwe’s political future.
Chiwenga, who played a pivotal role in Mnangagwa’s rise to power in 2017, attended the India-Africa Business Conclave in New Delhi, leading a delegation of ministers and business leaders. His visit yielded tangible results, including the revival of a stalled partnership between Willowvale Motor Industries and India’s Ashok Leyland to assemble buses and trucks in Zimbabwe, with production slated to begin in 2026.
“If the motivation was to demonstrate what each leader can deliver and their political currency, then it is quite clear that what Chiwenga signed up for looks more attractive,” said Gideon Chitanga, a research associate at Wits University in Johannesburg.
The vice president also secured a substantial $170 million investment from Platinum Crest Agro Ventures to construct what is expected to be Southern Africa’s largest sugar complex. Furthermore, he signed an MoU with the Jindal Group for the refurbishment of Hwange Thermal Power Station, a project that could potentially add up to 800MW to the national grid.
With Zimbabwe grappling with crippling rolling blackouts caused by low water levels at Kariba Dam and aging thermal plants, energy security has become a national priority and a valuable political asset – one that could prove decisive for Chiwenga if he seeks to succeed Mnangagwa in 2028.
In contrast, Mnangagwa’s trip to China, while visually impressive, appears to have been more about symbolism than substance. On 3 September, Mnangagwa attended China’s 80th anniversary of victory in World War II in Beijing, sharing the stage at a military parade in Tiananmen Square with Xi Jinping, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.
The following day, Mnangagwa met with President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, accompanied by Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube, Foreign Affairs Minister Amon Murwira, business executives, and controversial businessman Wicknell Chivayo.
The talks resulted in the signing of 17 MoUs covering cooperation in mining, agriculture, and media. However, analysts suggest that the outcomes are difficult to quantify.
“Mnangagwa’s visit strengthened Zimbabwe’s strategic relationship with China, but the outcomes were more diplomatic than economic,” says Rodreck Matsveru, an international relations expert based in Harare.
Matsveru notes that the Beijing trip revolved around symbolic engagements — commemorating historical events and reinforcing alliances — rather than delivering immediate relief.
Gideon Chitanga cautions that the deals are difficult to compare given the lack of financial transparency. “Just signing the agreements is the first step. The most important is follow-up and implementation in Zimbabwe,” he tells The Africa Report.
Matsveru agrees. “From a strictly economic perspective, Chiwenga’s India trip yielded more tangible, high-impact deals, especially in energy and automotive projects that can directly boost industrial output and energy security,” he says.
The competing foreign trips come against a backdrop of rising political tensions at home, particularly surrounding calls for President Mnangagwa to extend his term beyond the constitutional limit of 2028.
In February, President Mnangagwa met with a carefully selected group of media editors at State House in Harare, in a meeting orchestrated by his spokesman George Charamba. Sources suggest Charamba sought to corner his boss over the succession power struggle, allegedly at the behest of his preferred candidate, Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga.
While the meeting was presented as an opportunity for the President to clarify issues around his third term succession bid, insiders saw through the competing agendas at play. Mnangagwa wanted to manage the journalists regarding his unpopular term extension and succession agenda, while Charamba allegedly sought to expose his boss and corner him on the issue for Chiwenga’s benefit.
Despite Mnangagwa’s claims of being a “constitutionalist” who would step down in 2028, the ruling Zanu PF’s annual conference resolution in Mutare has exposed what many see as the President’s misleading political calculations and deception.
As first reported by The NewsHawks in 2023, Mnangagwa allegedly sought a third term but decided to package it as a two-year extension to his rule to avoid the stigma of third termism, which has contributed to instability and coups in other African nations.
Mnangagwa’s allies are quietly pushing to extend his term beyond 2028, despite his public insistence that he will step down. He has refused to endorse Chiwenga, leaving the field open for other contenders, including businessman Kudakwashe Tagwirei.
Chiwenga, on the other hand, has worked to cast himself as an anti-corruption champion, regularly denouncing tender fraud and taking aim at businessmen closely linked to Mnangagwa, including Chivayo.
Mnangagwa, by contrast, has embraced those allies. Chivayo and Dubai-based entrepreneur Paul Tungwarara feature prominently in his orbit, with the president pointing to major infrastructure projects such as the Trabablas interchange as evidence of his transformative leadership. His supporters use these projects to argue for extending his tenure beyond the constitutional limit.
Matsveru says Chiwenga is cultivating international allies and deliberately presenting himself as pragmatic and business-minded. “His deals with India suggest he is positioning himself as a problem-solver who can address Zimbabwe’s pressing economic needs, particularly power,” he says. “Such agreements portray Chiwenga as a leader capable of attracting investment and fixing infrastructure, appealing to both the business community and ordinary citizens.”
Chitanga adds that Chiwenga’s credibility rests not only on the deals he secured in India but also on his outspoken stance against corruption. “He has shown that he can present himself as a credible leader, one who could potentially move Zimbabwe toward more effective and better governance,” he says.
The unfolding succession battle, with its international dimensions and internal power struggles, promises to be a defining moment for Zanu PF and Zimbabwe as the 2028 elections draw closer.
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