Harare – Zimbabwe is on edge as a campaign of violence and intimidation seemingly targets activists and political leaders who oppose what many are calling the “ED2030” agenda – a suspected plot to extend President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s term beyond the constitutionally mandated limit. The unfolding events have sparked outrage and raised serious concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
At the centre of the storm is Job Sikhala, a prominent opposition leader who recently found himself embroiled in a bizarre and alarming incident in South Africa. Sikhala, already facing charges of possession of explosives, was released on bail by a Pretoria Magistrate’s Court. However, the circumstances surrounding his arrest have fuelled suspicions of a sinister plot orchestrated by Zimbabwean state security agents.
Sikhala vehemently denies the allegations against him, claiming that the explosives were planted in his car by individuals linked to the Zimbabwean government. Speaking to journalists in Pretoria after his release, Sikhala expressed faith in the independence of the South African judiciary, a stark contrast to his perception of the Zimbabwean legal system, which he described as “captured.” He stated, “They have found out that these things have been planted in our car.”
The sequence of events leading to Sikhala’s arrest is shrouded in intrigue. On November 6th, Sikhala and his uncle were apprehended in South Africa after police, acting on a tip-off, discovered 26 blasting cartridges and 15 capped fuse connectors in his vehicle. Allies of Sikhala claim that he was tricked by individuals purporting to be associated with Joseph Kabila’s party in the Democratic Republic of Congo, who offered to assist him in promoting democracy in Zimbabwe.
According to these accounts, during a meeting with the supposed representatives, Sikhala’s car keys were taken, and his vehicle was driven away before being returned later. This incident has raised serious questions about the level of surveillance and potential manipulation targeting opposition figures.
Obert Masaraure, a human rights defender and close ally of Sikhala, finds it difficult to believe that Sikhala would willingly possess explosives. “Sikhala does not deal with explosives, and there is no reason whatsoever that he could willingly try to carry explosives,” Masaraure asserted. Harare-based political analyst Abel Kapodogo echoed this sentiment, suggesting that the incident was a deliberate tactic “to silence him for good.”
Masaraure further emphasised the Harare regime’s history of attempting to silence Sikhala, including through the courts. Given this context, he stated that they strongly suspect that Zimbabwean state security agents were behind the planting of explosives in Sikhala’s vehicle.
While the South African and Zimbabwean governments have yet to issue an official response regarding Sikhala’s arrest, Farai Marapira, ZANU-PF’s information and publicity director, has denied any involvement by the party in the incident. However, these denials have done little to quell the growing unease and distrust.
Rejoice Ngwenya, a Harare-based political analyst, drew parallels between Sikhala’s case and the case of Ari Ben-Menashe, a former junior officer in Israeli intelligence. Ben-Menashe had claimed he was hired by opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai to assassinate former president Robert Mugabe in the early 2000s. It later emerged that Ben-Menashe, then a Canada-based political consultant, had been hired by Zimbabwean intelligence officials to fabricate the plot, leading to Tsvangirai’s arrest for treason.
Ngwenya believes that opposition politicians can sometimes be naive and that, driven by a desperate need to fund their advocacy, they can fall into traps. “ZANU-PF is skilled in espionage,” Ngwenya stated. “They preyed on Sikhala’s enthusiasm and misplaced trust in strangers.”
Sikhala is one of several opposition leaders actively campaigning against the alleged plot by ZANU-PF to amend the constitution and extend Mnangagwa’s term by at least two years. Through his civil society organisation, the National Democratic Working Group, Sikhala has been a vocal critic of Mnangagwa and his allies. His activism has come at a price, as he has been arrested 65 times, though he was not convicted until 2024, when he received a suspended two-year sentence for inciting public violence. He spent 595 days incarcerated at Chikurubi Maximum Prison.
The incidents surrounding Sikhala are not isolated. On August 30th, Sikhala’s house was bombed by suspected security agents while he was in South Africa for the launch of his biography, “Footprints in the Chains, the Life Story of Job Sikhala,” written by Munyaradzi Angero Savanhu. Sikhala’s wife was at their rural home, and his children were sleeping in the house, but thankfully, they escaped unharmed.
Sikhala reported that two bombs were detonated at his house, causing extensive damage to the front section and roof. Despite police launching investigations, no arrests have been made to date.
Adding to the climate of fear and intimidation, the venue of the Southern Africa Political Economy Series (SAPES) Trust in Harare, owned by another Mnangagwa critic, Ibbo Mandaza, was razed by suspected state security agents in October. Activists and opposition political leaders, including Sikhala, Tendai Biti, and Masaraure, had planned to address the nation at the venue the following day, speaking out against Mnangagwa’s term extension, known as Agenda 2030.
Kapodogo believes that the violent attacks on critics are likely to intensify in the lead-up to 2028. “They want to cling to power by all means, and the recent developments of arrests, arson, and torture of well-known activists are a clear display of the diabolical nature of ZANU-PF, which can kill to stay in power,” he stated.
ZANU-PF has a well-documented history of resorting to violence to silence critics who threaten its grip on power. The police are also accused of complicity in the violence by failing to arrest suspects.
Following the bombing of SAPES Trust, the police blocked access to the venue, preventing activists from proceeding with their planned press conference. The police claimed they were conducting investigations, but again, no arrests were made.
On the same day that Mandaza’s offices were bombed, a fire was reported at the Highfield home of Gilbert Bgwende, another activist who opposes Agenda 2030. “They have already started pushing this idea, and I bet no activist is safe until they achieve this and the mutilation of the constitution,” Kapodogo warned.
Numerous activists and opposition supporters across the country have been abducted, tortured, and arrested after mobilising support against the alleged plot to remove the president’s term limit. Heavily armed police have been stationed outside Biti’s offices since Monday, a move that analysts view as an intimidation tactic.
Masaraure asserts that ZANU-PF is determined to silence all voices opposed to Agenda 2030, but he also believes that the people are equally committed to defending the constitution. “We urge Mnangagwa to stop attempting to impose himself as a life leader for Zimbabwe,” he said. “The people will rise in a manner never witnessed before and will definitely crush the Agenda 2030.”
He concluded with a stark warning: “The working people have no illusions about the full import of the Agenda 2030. It is a scheme to facilitate sustained wholesale looting by a few while the majority languish in poverty. We are going to block that.”
The escalating tensions and allegations of state-sponsored violence have created a volatile atmosphere in Zimbabwe. As the 2028 elections draw closer, the question remains whether the country can navigate this period of uncertainty and safeguard its democratic principles.
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